The Indian Minister for Science and Technology, Mr. Kapil Sibal, has said the Centre would soon initiate measures to put together a system that would provide advance warning for tsunamis.
When we are in distress and anguish, we would feel like doing many things in future either to avoid the unfortunate events that have caused our sufferings or to lessen the harmful impact of such calamitous events. It is one of the basic survival instincts of living beings. But a civilization, a country, or a community cannot be sustained only by such instincts. Instincts should lead to ideas that could be implemented in a given situation. This needs a plan. This does need graded programmes to achieve it.
Let us look into the warning messages(*) that were transmitted to tsunami warning centres in the Pacific Region between 26 and 27, December 2004. The first message was issued by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center at 06h44(IST) on 26th December. It was reported that an earthquake had occurred at 06h29(IST) near the west coast of Northern Sumatera with magnitude 8. The evaluation of this quake was as follows:
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THIS EARTHQUAKE IS LOCATED OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC. NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
THIS EARTHQUAKE IS LOCATED OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC. NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
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The second message was issued at 07h34(IST) i.e. fifty minutes after the first message. The magnitude was revised to 8.5 and it was mentioned clearly the possibility of a tsunami. The evaluation in this second message was like this:
The second message was issued at 07h34(IST) i.e. fifty minutes after the first message. The magnitude was revised to 8.5 and it was mentioned clearly the possibility of a tsunami. The evaluation in this second message was like this:
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REVISED MAGNITUDE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MANTLE WAVES. THIS EARTHQUAKE IS LOCATED OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC. NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR THE PACIFIC BASIN BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TSUNAMI NEAR THE EPICENTER.
REVISED MAGNITUDE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MANTLE WAVES. THIS EARTHQUAKE IS LOCATED OUTSIDE THE PACIFIC. NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR THE PACIFIC BASIN BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TSUNAMI NEAR THE EPICENTER.
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The wall of seawater hit the chennai coast around eight in the morning. If tsunami buoy, bottom pressure recorder, and other instruments had been deployed in the Indian Ocean, we could have possibly received the warning fifteen minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake. We would still have only an hour, or maybe two, to initiate actions either to prevent or to reduce the loss of lives and property. Do we have, at present, the infrastructure to communicate such warnings to the coastal areas? Building such an infrastructural system may not be difficult with the technological power the country has. What offers more challenge is the logistics problem of evacuating people under strict time contraints in populous India. In this respect, the statement, "As with any natural hazard, education and warnings are essential", of the first chairman of Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program, Dr. Eddie N. Bernard, cannot be underestimated. Evacuation cannot be done efficiently without the cooperation of the concerned community.
The wall of seawater hit the chennai coast around eight in the morning. If tsunami buoy, bottom pressure recorder, and other instruments had been deployed in the Indian Ocean, we could have possibly received the warning fifteen minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake. We would still have only an hour, or maybe two, to initiate actions either to prevent or to reduce the loss of lives and property. Do we have, at present, the infrastructure to communicate such warnings to the coastal areas? Building such an infrastructural system may not be difficult with the technological power the country has. What offers more challenge is the logistics problem of evacuating people under strict time contraints in populous India. In this respect, the statement, "As with any natural hazard, education and warnings are essential", of the first chairman of Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program, Dr. Eddie N. Bernard, cannot be underestimated. Evacuation cannot be done efficiently without the cooperation of the concerned community.
The government may also have to initiate many parallel programmes to create a good infrastructure that can use the warning messages to prevent the loss efficiently. This needs money apart from a resolute willingness. But we also have a responsibility.
Do we, the people, have the ability to cooperate under stress?
Or
Do such warnings still cause huge losses due to stampedes?
If a shared insecurity cannot motivate us sensibly, what else will?
* You can read the actual warning messages here.
